It's never been true that any team, including the Yankees, could be rotten and continue to draw.
And while the Cubs' attendance dropoff from last year (full season in '09, 74 dates this year)-1674/game- may not seem stupendous, it does show that the Cubs' franchise also isn't immune to fans finding other ways to amuse themselves when the local team sucks.
A few may even be going to see the Sox, who are still in the race, as sacrilegious as this shift in allegiance may seem to most Chicagoites.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Your first place Philadelphia Phillies!
I haven't seen the numbers, but I bet that the Phillies have lost as many, or nearly as many, player-days to the DL as the Mets did last year-and with comparable players-Utley, Rollins, etc.
Yet the Phillies are prospering, with a playoff spot now a 73% probability, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Maybe the acquisition of "character guys" by Pat Gillick and Rueben Amaro makes sense after all. It's not as if character doesn't matter, of course. That, without talent, won't buy you a latte' at Starbuck's. But with it, who knows?
Yet the Phillies are prospering, with a playoff spot now a 73% probability, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Maybe the acquisition of "character guys" by Pat Gillick and Rueben Amaro makes sense after all. It's not as if character doesn't matter, of course. That, without talent, won't buy you a latte' at Starbuck's. But with it, who knows?
Monday, August 30, 2010
There they go again
Yankees take 3:25 to play 2-1, nine inning game against White Sox.
I think the Yanks must think they're playing cricket.
I think the Yanks must think they're playing cricket.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
So that explains it!
Dr. Boli tells us why the Bucs really, really suck:
Under the terms of the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Pittsburgh Pirates are required to hire players who are really bad at baseball.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Mark Reynolds not quite on pace to break his own K record
Reynolds still strikes out at an ungodly rate, to be sure. But his 161 whiffs in the Diamondbacks' first 119 games translates to "just" 219 for the season, falling just short of his record 223 of last year. It's not exactly Maris and Mantle in '61, but I'll want to keep an eye on the "race". (Yes, I'm pitiful).
In his Historical Baseball Abstract of 2000 or so, Bill James wondered why no one had yet broken Bobby Bonds' 1970 record for K's, considering the steady trend towards more strikeouts. The obvious answer was that when guys got close, managers would start playing them less.
Now, there is little stigma attached to whiffing, which may be fine for someone like Reynolds, who is 5th in the NL in homers (26), and seventh in walks (61). But when rotten hitters strike out a ton, a common occurrence with so many teams having 3, 4, 5 100-K men, a little stigma might be order.
And of course, today's preponderance of aggressive swinging and missing probably accounts for the current rash of no-hitters, a trend we can expect to accelerate.
UPDATE: I haven't looked up anybody else, but Reynolds must be leading, or nearly leading MLB in Three True Outcomes-his 162 K, 62 BB, and 26 jacks in 467 PA amounts to a TTO rate of .535 (through 8/17).
In his Historical Baseball Abstract of 2000 or so, Bill James wondered why no one had yet broken Bobby Bonds' 1970 record for K's, considering the steady trend towards more strikeouts. The obvious answer was that when guys got close, managers would start playing them less.
Now, there is little stigma attached to whiffing, which may be fine for someone like Reynolds, who is 5th in the NL in homers (26), and seventh in walks (61). But when rotten hitters strike out a ton, a common occurrence with so many teams having 3, 4, 5 100-K men, a little stigma might be order.
And of course, today's preponderance of aggressive swinging and missing probably accounts for the current rash of no-hitters, a trend we can expect to accelerate.
UPDATE: I haven't looked up anybody else, but Reynolds must be leading, or nearly leading MLB in Three True Outcomes-his 162 K, 62 BB, and 26 jacks in 467 PA amounts to a TTO rate of .535 (through 8/17).
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Tony the whiner
Redleg Nation on Tony LaRussa and the recent unpleasantness between the Reds and Cards:
I love this, from ESPN’s story on the brawl: “La Russa wasn’t happy with Phillips’ comment and mentioned it to Reds general manager Walt Jocketty, who worked with him in St. Louis.”
Let me translate that for you: “LaRussa wasn’t happy with being called a whiner, so he went and whined to Walt Jocketty.”
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Three hours, 33 minutes to play a 2-1, nine inning game?
Yep, last night the Yanks and Red Sox managed to dawdle their way to a 3 and a half hour plus, low-scoring, nine inning game.
I've always been of the opinion that game lengths aren't really all that important-if you don't like baseball, it won't much matter to you whether games go three hours or two and a half-it will seem tedious either way.
But a line has to be drawn somewhere. It really shouldn't take that long to score three runs in a game with only twelve hits and eight walks. Bud Selig likes to say what matters is not game length so much, but the pace of the game-there couldn't have been much "pace" last night in New York. I'm sure the Yankees were happy to have the crowd of 49,000 plus on hand as long as possible to buy concessions and guzzle beer, but this is ridiculous. And it does seem to be a Yankees-Red Sox thing-the Astros and Braves, for example, played a 14 run, 8 1/2 inning job last night (Houston won, 10-4) in 2:53.
I don't have any answers, other than saying nobody should be allowed to call time when the pitcher's already in his motion. Plus there should be only one mound conference per pitcher per half inning, regardless of who initiates said meeting. Plus limiting replay to so-called boundary calls.
Plus the Yankees and Red Sox should be limited to seven innings, like high school games. Maybe they'll be able to keep things under three hours then.
I've always been of the opinion that game lengths aren't really all that important-if you don't like baseball, it won't much matter to you whether games go three hours or two and a half-it will seem tedious either way.
But a line has to be drawn somewhere. It really shouldn't take that long to score three runs in a game with only twelve hits and eight walks. Bud Selig likes to say what matters is not game length so much, but the pace of the game-there couldn't have been much "pace" last night in New York. I'm sure the Yankees were happy to have the crowd of 49,000 plus on hand as long as possible to buy concessions and guzzle beer, but this is ridiculous. And it does seem to be a Yankees-Red Sox thing-the Astros and Braves, for example, played a 14 run, 8 1/2 inning job last night (Houston won, 10-4) in 2:53.
I don't have any answers, other than saying nobody should be allowed to call time when the pitcher's already in his motion. Plus there should be only one mound conference per pitcher per half inning, regardless of who initiates said meeting. Plus limiting replay to so-called boundary calls.
Plus the Yankees and Red Sox should be limited to seven innings, like high school games. Maybe they'll be able to keep things under three hours then.
Monday, August 9, 2010
My NL East predictions, vindicated
My March 2010 NL East calls (see sidebar) are looking remarkably prescient, no?
Mind you, the Braves are still in first, and, by Baseball Prospectus' lights, have about twice the chance of making (86.8%, v. 46.3%) the October Show, compared with the Phillies. But right now, pretty much everybody looks to be within six games or so of what I projected.
My calls/BP's current projections:
Phillies 91 wins/90
Braves 88/93
Marlins 83/81
Mets 79/81
Nats 68/74
Mind you, the Braves are still in first, and, by Baseball Prospectus' lights, have about twice the chance of making (86.8%, v. 46.3%) the October Show, compared with the Phillies. But right now, pretty much everybody looks to be within six games or so of what I projected.
My calls/BP's current projections:
Phillies 91 wins/90
Braves 88/93
Marlins 83/81
Mets 79/81
Nats 68/74
Friday, June 4, 2010
Phillies' hitting follies
No, I didn't write "Phillies' Phollies". I hate that.
The Fightins are now 11th in the NL in runs scored, possibly the best determinant of how good a team's offense is, other than "productive outs" (kidding.)
How fast the mighty bats have fallen! Is it just due to Rollins and Polanco being out? I'm sure the Phils brass would like to believe that, but you shouldn't, though playing the third string SS and C, and second string 3B, for a while hasn't exactly helped.
Mega-million dollar baby Ryan Howard is on pace for just 28 homers, and doesn't walk much any more. He pretty much defines "albatross of a contract."
Rollins' absence has hurt, no question-his stand-in as lead-off hitter, Shane Victorino, is showing unusual power (ISO of .191), but ain't gettin' on base-his OBA is an unacceptable .308. Jimmy, for all his faults, usually exceeds this, and in fact has a mark of .462 in limited duty this year.
The guys added in the off-season to spruce up the bench have, in a word, sucked-Gload, Schneider, and Castro have done little-and Greg Dobbs is having his second rotten year in a row.
I'm with Beerleaguer-time to dump Dobbs and add John Mayberry from the IronPigs, and/or Andy Tracy. The Phils have stopped hitting the long ball, and stopped hitting in general, and they could use the sluggers on the bench these move (-s) would provide.
The Fightins are now 11th in the NL in runs scored, possibly the best determinant of how good a team's offense is, other than "productive outs" (kidding.)
How fast the mighty bats have fallen! Is it just due to Rollins and Polanco being out? I'm sure the Phils brass would like to believe that, but you shouldn't, though playing the third string SS and C, and second string 3B, for a while hasn't exactly helped.
Mega-million dollar baby Ryan Howard is on pace for just 28 homers, and doesn't walk much any more. He pretty much defines "albatross of a contract."
Rollins' absence has hurt, no question-his stand-in as lead-off hitter, Shane Victorino, is showing unusual power (ISO of .191), but ain't gettin' on base-his OBA is an unacceptable .308. Jimmy, for all his faults, usually exceeds this, and in fact has a mark of .462 in limited duty this year.
The guys added in the off-season to spruce up the bench have, in a word, sucked-Gload, Schneider, and Castro have done little-and Greg Dobbs is having his second rotten year in a row.
I'm with Beerleaguer-time to dump Dobbs and add John Mayberry from the IronPigs, and/or Andy Tracy. The Phils have stopped hitting the long ball, and stopped hitting in general, and they could use the sluggers on the bench these move (-s) would provide.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
I love Pat Burrell/What Brian Sabean and Warren Buffett have in common
...but the idea that an that an NL team would actually sign him, even to a minor league deal, convinces me that any idiot can run a major league team, and that all the nasty things John Perricone at Only Baseball Matters says about Giants' GM Brian Sabean are wholly justified.
Man, Perricone loathes Sabean. He takes each silly move by Sabean (usually related to Brian's undue love of veterans) as a grave personal affront. Yet SF has a decent shot at the playoffs this year. I suppose John would say Sabean got lucky with Lincecum, Cain, and a few others. He did.
It's The Buffett Effect-the Sage of Omaha is thought of as a brilliant stock picker, but take away a few key choices, and he's Joe Blow, Average Inept Investor. Nobody knows more than the mass of investors, i.e., the market, and nobody knows more than the mass of baseball execs know collectively. Think anybody really can tell which draft picks will blossom?
Luck and randomness have more to do with what we call success, and failure, in both those fields, than we'd like to admit. Even Pat Gillick, who will probably go to the Hall of Fame, made nearly as many bad player picks with the Phillies as good ones-but the core was there-Rollins, Utley, etc., largely acquired by his predecessors in Philadelphia.
Man, Perricone loathes Sabean. He takes each silly move by Sabean (usually related to Brian's undue love of veterans) as a grave personal affront. Yet SF has a decent shot at the playoffs this year. I suppose John would say Sabean got lucky with Lincecum, Cain, and a few others. He did.
It's The Buffett Effect-the Sage of Omaha is thought of as a brilliant stock picker, but take away a few key choices, and he's Joe Blow, Average Inept Investor. Nobody knows more than the mass of investors, i.e., the market, and nobody knows more than the mass of baseball execs know collectively. Think anybody really can tell which draft picks will blossom?
Luck and randomness have more to do with what we call success, and failure, in both those fields, than we'd like to admit. Even Pat Gillick, who will probably go to the Hall of Fame, made nearly as many bad player picks with the Phillies as good ones-but the core was there-Rollins, Utley, etc., largely acquired by his predecessors in Philadelphia.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
"The last place New York Mets"/Francoeur's follies
Man, that sounds good!
I thought the Mets would bounce back this year-somewhat-no way could their luck with injuries be as bad as it was last year. But the whole division looked to be improved, with the exception of the Marlins-so I didn't see the Mets making up a lot of ground. And they aren't.
A big part of the problem for the Metropolitans is Jeff Francoeur, who will always break your heart. Do not be deceived by his RBI count! Jeff may well get to 95 ribbies this year, with 23 in his first 43 games.
I hate the "so and so is the poster boy" for such and such expression, it's trite as hell, but if anyone is the poster slugger for the meaninglessness of RBI, in isolation from other stats, Francoeur is your boy. It's a shame-there seemed to be boundless promise when he first came up, but here he is, in his 5th full year, with a career OPS+ of 92. His OBP is all of .280 this year. He, in a word, sucks.
Have you ever noticed the similarities between Francoeur and Jayson Werth?
Both are RF's with good range (Jeff is probably a little better defensively), and big swings. Both throw well also. But Werth, despite his tendency towards injuries, has ended up having a nice career, for which he will shortly receive an enormous payday, while Francoeur (who still is only 26, mind you) just isn't developing.
It's all about knowledge of, command of, the strike zone. Jeff still doesn't walk (11 BB in 164 PA in '10), and still can't work the count-he's 155th (out of 180 MLB qualifiers) in P/PA. Werth is 11th.
I thought the Mets would bounce back this year-somewhat-no way could their luck with injuries be as bad as it was last year. But the whole division looked to be improved, with the exception of the Marlins-so I didn't see the Mets making up a lot of ground. And they aren't.
A big part of the problem for the Metropolitans is Jeff Francoeur, who will always break your heart. Do not be deceived by his RBI count! Jeff may well get to 95 ribbies this year, with 23 in his first 43 games.
I hate the "so and so is the poster boy" for such and such expression, it's trite as hell, but if anyone is the poster slugger for the meaninglessness of RBI, in isolation from other stats, Francoeur is your boy. It's a shame-there seemed to be boundless promise when he first came up, but here he is, in his 5th full year, with a career OPS+ of 92. His OBP is all of .280 this year. He, in a word, sucks.
Have you ever noticed the similarities between Francoeur and Jayson Werth?
Both are RF's with good range (Jeff is probably a little better defensively), and big swings. Both throw well also. But Werth, despite his tendency towards injuries, has ended up having a nice career, for which he will shortly receive an enormous payday, while Francoeur (who still is only 26, mind you) just isn't developing.
It's all about knowledge of, command of, the strike zone. Jeff still doesn't walk (11 BB in 164 PA in '10), and still can't work the count-he's 155th (out of 180 MLB qualifiers) in P/PA. Werth is 11th.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Just how awesome is Jason Heyward?
Well, besides everything else, he has the longest home run in baseball this year-a 476 foot blast to right against Carlos Zambrano at Turner Field, on April 5.
If you like, you can follow Jason on Twitter.
UPDATE: Heyward also leads in WPA among MLB batters, at 1.98.
If you like, you can follow Jason on Twitter.
UPDATE: Heyward also leads in WPA among MLB batters, at 1.98.
Charles Krauthammer is a Nationals fan
I'd be one too, if they weren't in the same division as the Phillies.
It's wonderful that baseball is back in the nation's capital, where it belongs, even if the Nats are about as good as the Senators typically were.
Krauthammer doesn't mind a bit:
Baseball, in other words, is a civilized sport for civilized people. In a violent culture, it's amazing that baseball's still as popular as it is. It's not a mere spectacle like football or basketball-it's an interesting, mind-expanding experience. The pace that so many criticize as slow is just right, actually-it lends itself to the talk between pitches among armchair experts that makes the game so much fun.
It's wonderful that baseball is back in the nation's capital, where it belongs, even if the Nats are about as good as the Senators typically were.
Krauthammer doesn't mind a bit:
You get there and the twilight's gleaming, the popcorn's popping, the kids're romping and everyone's happy. The joy of losing consists in this: Where there are no expectations, there is no disappointment...
No one's happy to lose, and the fans cheer lustily when the Nats win. But as starters blow up and base runners get picked off, there is none of the agitation, the angry, screaming, beer-spilling, red-faced ranting you get at football or basketball games.
Baseball, in other words, is a civilized sport for civilized people. In a violent culture, it's amazing that baseball's still as popular as it is. It's not a mere spectacle like football or basketball-it's an interesting, mind-expanding experience. The pace that so many criticize as slow is just right, actually-it lends itself to the talk between pitches among armchair experts that makes the game so much fun.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Red Sox renovations
Boston club plans to return Fenway to 1912 conditions.
Pres. Taft, supported by a platform of reinforced concrete, will throw out this year's first pitch.
Taft's bitter rival Teddy Roosevelt will curry favor with the fans by leading a chorus of "Tessie" during the 7th inning stretch.
Pres. Taft, supported by a platform of reinforced concrete, will throw out this year's first pitch.
Taft's bitter rival Teddy Roosevelt will curry favor with the fans by leading a chorus of "Tessie" during the 7th inning stretch.
Baseball and NFL now tied in fans' team loyalty
The NFL now has a new, equal rival for fan devotion-Major League Baseball:
The MLB teams with the most loyal fans are:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Anaheim Angels/Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Minnesota Twins/Milwaukee Brewers
After years in the #2 spot, Major League Baseball is now tied with the National Football League with the "most loyal fans," according to the 15th annual 2010 Brand Keys Sports Loyalty Index, a survey which helps professional sports teams increase broadcast, ticket and merchandise revenues by providing loyalty rankings and fan diagnostics in their home and national markets.
The Sports Loyalty Engagement Index gives an apples-to-apples comparison of the intensity with which fans support professional sport leagues and their home team vs. the corresponding values for the fans of other teams in the market," said Robert Passikoff, president of New York- based Brand Keys, Inc.The criteria are entertainment, authenticity, fan bonding, and history/tradition.
The MLB teams with the most loyal fans are:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Anaheim Angels/Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Minnesota Twins/Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, March 26, 2010
Baseball vs. football-an apples and oranges comparison
I never quite understand the people who dump on baseball by saying it's slow, and then turn and around and tell us that football is a fast, action-packed game. Here I demolish (haha) those arguments.
First, pro football isn't a "game" at all- it's a strikingly successful TV show. NFL teams no more compete with each other (due to the enormous, evenly-split pile of national network cash) than my blog competes with Elmore Leonard's books. Of course, they need to appear to compete. So you have the weekly TV "event."
That lack of actual competition is exactly why the NFL union has so little pull-why would an NFL team owner hike salaries, make the money guaranteed, etc., when an NFL franchise is a money-printing machine even if you go 0-16? The financial incentives just aren't there-and the people who run football are, believe me, all about the money.
It's interesting to note, by the by, just how many NFL teams still can't sell out consistently. Baseball fans pay money and go to games...including spring training games-the Phillies have sold out nearly every meaningless spring training game this year. Football fans, even if there are more of them, watch on TV. There's a big difference in intensity of interest, I'd say.
And I really wouldn't want to argue football is faster than baseball. Time an NFL game, and see how much of the three hours is actually consumed by play. It's about 15 minutes...of three yards and a cloud of dust, over and over again. Exciting plays are few and far between. But I guess it's like NASCAR-their fans will wait endlessly for a crash, football fans will wait endlessly for that five yard TD pass, to be followed by guys strutting around in their ridiculously over-tight unis as if they'd just cured cancer. A huge number of them are fat, too..especially linemen. Only football players, of any major sport's participants, die younger than the population, on average. Wonder why that is?
If you want a continuous action sport, flip on soccer and see how thrilling that is.
First, pro football isn't a "game" at all- it's a strikingly successful TV show. NFL teams no more compete with each other (due to the enormous, evenly-split pile of national network cash) than my blog competes with Elmore Leonard's books. Of course, they need to appear to compete. So you have the weekly TV "event."
That lack of actual competition is exactly why the NFL union has so little pull-why would an NFL team owner hike salaries, make the money guaranteed, etc., when an NFL franchise is a money-printing machine even if you go 0-16? The financial incentives just aren't there-and the people who run football are, believe me, all about the money.
It's interesting to note, by the by, just how many NFL teams still can't sell out consistently. Baseball fans pay money and go to games...including spring training games-the Phillies have sold out nearly every meaningless spring training game this year. Football fans, even if there are more of them, watch on TV. There's a big difference in intensity of interest, I'd say.
And I really wouldn't want to argue football is faster than baseball. Time an NFL game, and see how much of the three hours is actually consumed by play. It's about 15 minutes...of three yards and a cloud of dust, over and over again. Exciting plays are few and far between. But I guess it's like NASCAR-their fans will wait endlessly for a crash, football fans will wait endlessly for that five yard TD pass, to be followed by guys strutting around in their ridiculously over-tight unis as if they'd just cured cancer. A huge number of them are fat, too..especially linemen. Only football players, of any major sport's participants, die younger than the population, on average. Wonder why that is?
If you want a continuous action sport, flip on soccer and see how thrilling that is.
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