Wednesday, June 2, 2010

I love Pat Burrell/What Brian Sabean and Warren Buffett have in common

...but the idea that an that an NL team would actually sign him, even to a minor league deal, convinces me that any idiot can run a major league team, and that all the nasty things John Perricone at Only Baseball Matters says about Giants' GM Brian Sabean are wholly justified.

Man, Perricone loathes Sabean. He takes each silly move by Sabean (usually related to Brian's undue love of veterans) as a grave personal affront. Yet SF has a decent shot at the playoffs this year. I suppose John would say Sabean got lucky with Lincecum, Cain, and a few others. He did.

It's The Buffett Effect-the Sage of Omaha is thought of as a brilliant stock picker, but take away a few key choices, and he's Joe Blow, Average Inept Investor. Nobody knows more than the mass of investors, i.e., the market, and nobody knows more than the mass of baseball execs know collectively. Think anybody really can tell which draft picks will blossom? 

Luck and randomness have more to do with what we call success, and failure, in both those fields, than we'd like to admit. Even Pat Gillick, who will probably go to the Hall of Fame, made nearly as many bad player picks with the Phillies as good ones-but the core was there-Rollins, Utley, etc., largely acquired by his predecessors in Philadelphia.

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